The Global FX Outlook – September 2025

September brings a softer U.S. dollar as markets increasingly price in a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17. The Euro remains firm on stronger Eurozone momentum and a new EU–US trade deal that reduced policy uncertainty, while sterling struggles under high inflation and sluggish growth. Commodity-linked currencies, led by the Australian dollar, are stabilizing on improving global sentiment, and Asian central banks remain active in managing currency volatility.

The August 2025 Currency Outlook unpacks the trends shaping exchange rates this month and key risks for businesses and individuals.

What you will learn in this report:  

• Market analysis: How a likely Fed rate cut, Eurozone strength, and shifting trade policies are influencing currency flows.
• Currency projections: Updated one- and three-month forecasts for USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, JPY, CNY, AUD, NZD, MXN, and other key pairs.
• Risks to watch: U.S. trade-policy changes, central bank decisions (ECB, Fed, BoE, BoJ), and global growth surprises driving FX volatility.