The Global FX Outlook – October 2025

October sees the U.S. dollar holding its range as the Fed’s September cut meets still-solid U.S. growth. The euro stays supported on firmer Eurozone momentum and a likely end to ECB easing, while sterling continues to lag amid weak UK growth and elevated inflation. Commodity currencies stabilize—led by the Australian dollar—on improving global sentiment, and Asian central banks remain active in smoothing FX volatility.

The October 2025 Currency Outlook unpacks the forces likely to steer exchange rates in the weeks ahead.

What you will learn in this report:  

• Market analysis: How a resilient U.S. economy, a potential late-October Fed move, and improving Eurozone momentum are shaping currency trends.
• Currency projections: Updated 1–3 month views across USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, JPY, CNY, AUD, NZD, MXN and key crosses (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, USD/MXN).
• Risks to watch: RBNZ (Oct 8), Fed/BoC (Oct 29), BoJ (Oct 30) decisions; tariff headlines; China growth and property-sector stress; and late-year policy divergence.