The Global FX Outlook – November 2025

November brings renewed resilience for the U.S. dollar as strong economic data and “higher-for-longer” inflation keep the Federal Reserve cautious. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that another rate cut “is not a foregone conclusion” helped lift U.S. yields and support USD strength.

Across major markets, currencies continue to adjust to diverging central bank paths. The euro is consolidating after earlier gains, sterling remains under pressure amid U.K. stagflation, and the yen weakens further as Japan’s new leadership signals hesitation to normalize rates. Meanwhile, commodity currencies like the Australian dollar are finding support from firmer global growth and improving sentiment, while New Zealand’s dollar remains weighed down by a contracting economy.

The November 2025 Currency Outlook unpacks how inflation trends, policy divergence, and trade developments — including the early U.S.–Mexico–Canada (USMCA) review — are shaping FX markets into year-end.

What you will learn in this report:  

• Market analysis: Why a still-firm U.S. economy, elevated inflation, and shifting interest rate expectations are keeping the dollar dominant.
• Currency projections: Updated 1–3 month views across USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, JPY, CNY, AUD, NZD, and MXN, including key crosses (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, USD/MXN).
• Risks to watch: Fed’s December rate decision, USMCA trade negotiations, U.K. stagflation pressures, yen weakness amid political influence in Japan, and further rate cuts in New Zealand.