The Global FX Outlook – June 2025

The U.S. economy has slowed, placing the USD under renewed pressure as concerns mount over tariff complexity and its implications for inflation, business investment, and consumer demand. Since the start of the year, the USD has declined 9.7%, while the EUR has strengthened 11.5%, supported by the EU’s expansive fiscal stimulus package.

Despite rising uncertainty in global growth, currencies like the AUD, NZD, and MXN have appreciated — largely on the back of a weaker USD — while central banks begin to shift toward rate cuts. Markets now look to Q2 data, political risks, and monetary policy signals to determine the direction of currency trends.

The June 2025 Currency Outlook explores the key macro trends expected to influence FX dynamics in the weeks ahead.

What you will learn in this report:  

• Market analysis: How softening U.S. data, interest rate movements, and tariff-related trade shifts are shaping FX performance globally.
• Currency projections: Updated expectations for USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, JPY, CNY, and key emerging markets.
• Risks to watch: Stagflation in the U.S., tariff impacts on North American economies, Eurozone fiscal expansion, and FX intervention in China.
• Actionable insights: What businesses, investors, and currency traders should anticipate as central banks pivot and policy uncertainty grows in H2 2025.