The Global FX Outlook – July 2025

July finds global currency markets continuing to adjust to a weaker U.S. dollar, diverging central bank policies, and shifting economic momentum across major regions. The U.S. economy is showing clearer signs of slowing, with markets increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, Europe’s large-scale fiscal stimulus is supporting growth expectations and driving capital inflows into the euro.

The July 2025 Currency Outlook explores the key macro trends expected to influence FX dynamics in the weeks ahead.

What you will learn in this report:  

• Market analysis: How the Fed’s approaching rate cuts, Europe’s defense-driven fiscal expansion, and softening global demand are moving currencies.
• Currency projections: Updated expectations for USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, JPY, CNY, and key emerging markets.
• Risks to watch: U.S. stagflation concerns, tariff disputes, China’s deflation challenges, and the diverging paths of global monetary policy.