The Global FX Outlook – April 2026

April begins with global currency markets repricing around a clear theme: an oil-driven shock is changing the balance between energy exporters and energy importers. With the Middle East conflict still shaping risk sentiment, the U.S. dollar has strengthened and is expected to remain supported, helped by safe-haven demand and the U.S. economy’s position as a net energy exporter.¹

Outside the U.S., higher oil prices are creating a more difficult setup for many major economies. The Eurozone and the U.K. are net energy importers, and the outlook points to additional pressure on EUR and GBP as imported energy costs lift inflation risk and slow growth. In Asia-Pacific, AUD and NZD have shifted from earlier momentum to a more cautious tone as markets weigh the risk that the conflict slows global economic growth. Meanwhile, JPY is not taking on its traditional safe-haven role in this environment, while CNY has remained comparatively steady as authorities continue to smooth volatility.¹

The April 2026 Currency Outlook explores how the oil shock is reshaping currency performance, why the USD is likely to stay supported, and what businesses can do to reduce deadline-driven FX risk while markets remain headline-sensitive.¹

What you will learn in this report:  

• Market analysis: Why the USD is strengthening in an oil shock environment, how safe-haven demand and shifting rate expectations are reinforcing USD support, and why energy importers face added pressure when oil prices rise.¹
• Currency projections: Updated 1–3 month views across USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, JPY, CNY, AUD, NZD, and MXN, including key pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNY, and USD/MXN.¹
• Risks to watch: A prolonged conflict that keeps oil prices high, inflation pressure that shifts central-bank expectations, further downside risk in EUR and GBP, softer AUD and NZD on global growth concerns, renewed volatility in USD/JPY, and upside risk in USD/CAD during risk-off periods.¹