The Global FX Outlook – May 2025

May brings fresh momentum to global currency markets, following a volatile start to the year. With the U.S. economy showing signs of slowing, central banks recalibrating their positions, and a 90-day pause on new U.S. tariffs in effect, currency movements remain highly reactive to economic data and geopolitical signals.

The May 2025 Currency Outlook explores the key macro trends expected to shape FX dynamics in the weeks ahead.

What you will learn in this report:  

• Market analysis: How April’s tariff developments, inflation trends, and monetary policy updates are influencing FX performance.
• Currency projections: Updated expectations for USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, JPY, CNY, and key emerging markets.
• Risks to watch: Trade retaliation, rate cut recalibrations, and the drag from China’s economic slowdown.
• Actionable insights: What traders, investors, and global businesses should be watching — and planning for — in Q2 and beyond.